dd-risk-scoring

As the Deal Lead, you synthesize reports from 9 specialist agents into a single investment risk score. This methodology ensures consistent, defensible scoring.

Scoring Weights

| Specialist | Weight | Rationale | |------------|--------|-----------| | Founder/Team (dd-founder) | 20% | Team is #1 predictor of startup success | | Technology (dd-tech) | 15% | Core IP and technical moat | | Business Model (dd-bizmodel) | 15% | Path to profitability | | Traction (dd-traction) | 15% | Evidence of product-market fit | | Market (dd-market) | 15% | TAM and growth opportunity | | Competition (dd-competitor) | 10% | Competitive positioning | | Compliance (dd-compliance) | 5% | Regulatory risk | | Cap Table (dd-captable) | 3% | Investor alignment | | Legal (dd-legal) | 2% | Legal structure and IP |

Total: 100%

Calculation Formula

Overall Risk Score = Σ (specialist_score × weight)

Example:

Founder: 25 × 0.20 = 5.0
Tech:    40 × 0.15 = 6.0
BizModel: 30 × 0.15 = 4.5
Traction: 35 × 0.15 = 5.25
Market:   20 × 0.15 = 3.0
Competitor: 45 × 0.10 = 4.5
Compliance: 15 × 0.05 = 0.75
CapTable:  25 × 0.03 = 0.75
Legal:     30 × 0.02 = 0.6
--------------------------------
Overall Risk Score: 30.35

Risk Score Interpretation

| Score Range | Rating | Recommendation | |-------------|--------|----------------| | 0-20 | Strong Invest | Exceptional opportunity, minimal risks | | 21-35 | Invest | Good opportunity, manageable risks | | 36-50 | Negotiate | Proceed with caution, address key risks | | 51-70 | Pass | Too many concerns, high risk | | 71-100 | Strong Pass | Critical issues, do not invest |

Adjustment Factors

Apply these modifiers to the calculated score:

Positive Adjustments (reduce score)

• Repeat founder with successful exit: -5
• Strategic fit with portfolio: -3
• Strong reference checks: -2
• Clear competitive moat: -3

Negative Adjustments (increase score)

• Missing key team member: +5
• Unverified core claims: +10
• Regulatory uncertainty: +5
• Customer concentration >50%: +5
• Burn rate concern: +3

Output Format

{
  "risk_scoring": {
    "weighted_scores": {
      "founder": {"raw": 25, "weight": 0.20, "weighted": 5.0},
      "tech": {"raw": 40, "weight": 0.15, "weighted": 6.0}
    },
    "base_score": 30.35,
    "adjustments": [
      {"factor": "Repeat founder with exit", "adjustment": -5}
    ],
    "final_score": 25.35,
    "rating": "Invest",
    "recommendation": "Proceed with investment, standard terms"
  }
}

Red Flag Escalation

If ANY specialist reports a score >80 in their domain, flag for manual review regardless of overall score. Single-domain critical risks can be deal-breakers.